SEB Predicts Steady Recovery and Divergence for Eastern Europe Economies
This autumn nearly all countries in Eastern (including Central) Europe have begun an economic recovery after growth bottomed out during the second quarter of 2013, consistent with the pattern in Western Europe, reports SEB. However, the Swedish bank predicts that their recovery over the next two years will be modest.
Latvia and Lithuania will continue to grow fastest in the region and in the European Union (EU). The three largest economies will diverge: with relatively strong fundamentals, Poland will regain its starring role after an unexpectedly deep growth slump; Russia, increasingly in need of reforms, has downshifted to slower growth than it enjoyed before the global economic crisis; and a pressed Ukraine will devalue its way out of an acute crisis, writes SEB in the latest issue of its twice-yearly Eastern European Outlook (EEO).
“Russia and Ukraine are facing significant challenges: Russia to raise its long-term growth potential, Ukraine to manage an acute crisis that will emerge this winter. Otherwise, the general economic picture of Eastern Europe is turning brighter,” says Mikael Johansson, head of Eastern European research at SEB and EEO’s chief editor.
“Looking ahead, expansion will benefit from good real wage growth and the fact that the region can now shake off the eurozone crisis, which has hampered growth and created instability in banking systems, especially in the central and southern parts of Eastern Europe.”
In most Eastern European countries, the economic upturn is initially being driven mainly by private consumption, but also by increased exports. Consumption is being strengthened by good real wage growth, much of it due to continued low inflation. Unemployment will gradually continue to fall in the Baltic countries, remain relatively unchanged in Poland and Ukraine and increase slightly in Russia. Exports will be fuelled by gradually higher external demand, especially from Germany.
Capital spending will take time to rebound, due to lingering uncertainty about the growth outlook – internationally and in the region – combined with slowly thawing credit conditions. Mainly in the central and southern parts of Eastern Europe, credit conditions have been abnormally tight so far, due to the euro zone crisis and the relatively large foreign ownership of banks.
Gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts for the six countries that EEO covers are as follows: