The 2024 global elections, involving over 70 countries, are set to reshape international dynamics, with significant economic and regulatory implications, demanding strategic corporate adaptability.
As the world braces for the geopolitical tremors of 2024, the global election calendar emerges as a pivotal axis around which much of the year’s instability will revolve. With over 70 countries, representing close to 2 billion people, poised to cast their votes, the stage is set for a year that could significantly reshape the international landscape. From the corridors of power in Washington to the bustling streets of India, the outcomes of these elections hold the potential to not only redefine domestic policies but also recalibrate the dynamics of global markets, ushering in a period of heightened economic divergence and political fragmentation.
The year 2024 stands as a monumental period in the annals of global democracy, with an unprecedented number of countries—over 70—scheduled to hold elections. This vast electoral exercise spans continents, enveloping nations as diverse as Britain, Bangladesh, India, and Indonesia, thereby encapsulating a significant portion of the global populace. However, this democratic spectacle is shadowed by concerns that many of these elections may not herald the strengthening of democratic ideals. Instead, there is apprehension that they could further entrench illiberal rulers, reward the corrupt, and exacerbate political polarisation. The American presidential election, arguably the most consequential of these, is predicted to be particularly divisive, casting a long shadow over international relations and the global order. Amidst ongoing conflicts and geopolitical tensions, the outcomes of these elections are poised to influence the world’s economic and political trajectory profoundly.
The 2024 elections are set to have profound economic implications, with the potential to significantly alter the global economic landscape. Goldman Sachs Asset Management highlights that elections in key economies such as the US, the UK, South Africa, India, Taiwan, and Russia could diverge the global economy from its current trajectory. This divergence is expected to provoke greater dispersion across asset classes and sectors, reflecting the uncertainty and varied outcomes these elections could engender. The world, already grappling with the aftermath of pandemics, wars, and economic shocks, faces another layer of complexity as these electoral outcomes may lead to shifts in power balances, major policy changes, and increased geopolitical friction. Such developments could exacerbate trade conflicts and political fragmentation, further destabilizing an already precarious world economic order, and challenging treasurers and investors to navigate a labyrinth of uncertainty.
The landscape of regulatory changes is evolving rapidly, with significant implications for corporate compliance. In the United States and the European Union, regulatory activity is intensifying, particularly in response to advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), data access, privacy, and competition. The EU’s AI Act, heralded as the world’s first comprehensive AI legislation, aims to regulate AI development and use based on risk levels. This, alongside the Digital Markets Act (DMA) and the Digital Services Act (DSA), which will be fully enforceable in 2024, underscores a growing regulatory scrutiny that will profoundly impact the internet market, especially for major companies. In the US, an executive order focusing on the secure development of AI technologies presents both risks and opportunities for corporations. These regulatory shifts necessitate increased investments in cybersecurity, data privacy, and compliance technologies, urging corporate treasury and compliance teams to adapt swiftly to mitigate potential risks and safeguard their organizations’ reputations.
In the face of 2024’s geopolitical and economic uncertainties, treasurers and corporate leaders must adopt robust strategies to navigate the tumultuous landscape. Preparing for a wide range of possibilities is paramount, especially given the biggest election year in history with critical elections spanning the European Union, Ukraine, India, Mexico, South Africa, the UK, the US, Russia, and Taiwan. This necessitates a vigilant approach towards regulatory changes, particularly those related to artificial intelligence (AI), data privacy, and competition laws. Companies must prioritize investments in cybersecurity, data analytics, process automation, and AI to enhance their compliance frameworks. Additionally, engaging in risk assessments, monitoring, testing, third-party risk management, and governance practices will be crucial for maintaining operational integrity. By focusing on these strategies, corporations can turn climate risk and compliance challenges into competitive advantages, ensuring resilience in an increasingly unpredictable global environment.
As 2024 unfolds, the global community stands at a crossroads, facing unprecedented electoral, economic, and regulatory challenges. Navigating this complex landscape requires foresight, adaptability, and strategic planning. By staying informed and proactive, treasurers and corporate leaders can steer their organizations through these turbulent times with resilience and vision.