New Deloitte research confirms geopolitics remains the primary concern for finance chiefs heading into 2026. As tensions in Venezuela trigger fresh market shocks, Eric Huttman, CEO of MillTech, warns that FX uncertainty has become a structural business risk.
The dawn of 2026 has brought a familiar but intensified challenge to the desks of corporate treasurers: the overwhelming dominance of geopolitics as the primary driver of market sentiment.
According to the latest Deloitte CFO Survey, geopolitics remains the top external risk for finance chiefs of large UK businesses as they navigate the year ahead. This isn’t a new anxiety, geopolitical concerns have topped the list for three consecutive years but the intensity is scaling. The current volatility, punctuated by significant US involvement in Venezuela, has moved beyond political headlines to become the “match” igniting movements across oil, gold, and, crucially, currency markets.
For international corporates, the danger is no longer theoretical. The “fear premium” currently baked into market prices is rapidly bleeding into currency pairs, creating a climate of FX uncertainty that threatens to erode even the most robust margins.
The scale of the threat is reflected in the rear view mirror: in 2025, half of all UK corporates experienced tangible financial losses directly attributed to currency volatility. As we enter 2026, the expectation is not for a return to stability, but for a deepening of this trend.
Eric Huttman, CEO of MillTech, emphasizes that treasurers can no longer treat these events as peripheral. Commenting on the shifting landscape, Huttman noted:
“The ramifications of geopolitical uncertainty extend well beyond the immediate political or economic headlines. When tensions escalate or policy direction becomes unclear, the impact quickly bleeds into currency markets, often in ways that are difficult for businesses to anticipate. What can appear as a distant geopolitical event can ultimately reprice currencies, disrupt cash flows and erode margins, turning FX volatility from a peripheral concern into a core business risk. In 2025, half of UK corporates experienced some kind of losses due to currency volatility. This year, businesses must prepare for more volatility as they operate amid what promises to be another unpredictable year.
“As this volatility becomes more structural rather than cyclical, treasury teams will need more robust, forward-looking approaches to managing risk. That means greater use of advanced analytics, real-time visibility across exposures and more disciplined execution, so businesses can respond faster and protect margins in what is shaping up to be a prolonged period of uncertainty.”
Huttman’s analysis highlights a critical shift in the nature of risk. If FX volatility is becoming structural driven by long-term geopolitical realignment rather than short-term market cycles then the traditional, reactive “wait-and-see” approach is effectively obsolete.
To protect the bottom line in 2026, treasury departments must prioritize three pillars of modern risk management:
Advanced Analytics: Moving beyond spreadsheets to predictive modelling that can stress-test exposures against specific geopolitical scenarios, such as further escalations in Latin America or shifts in US trade policy.
Real-Time Visibility: In a market where currencies can reprice in minutes following a headline, “month-end” visibility is a liability. Treasurers need an aggregated, real-time view of exposures across all international subsidiaries.
Disciplined Execution: Margin protection requires a systematic approach to hedging and execution. Discretionary, “gut-feel” trading is being replaced by automated, disciplined frameworks that ensure fast response times when volatility spikes.
By moving beyond legacy spreadsheets and embracing advanced analytics and real-time exposure tracking, treasury departments can transform from reactive cost centers into the strategic frontline of margin defense. In an era where a single headline can reprice a currency, the most resilient firms will be those that have traded guesswork for disciplined, data-driven execution.