The era of regarding global disruption as a series of isolated “black swan” events is officially over. According to the Corporate Debt and Treasury Report 2026, published by Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer (HSF Kramer) in partnership with The Association of Corporate Treasurers (ACT), treasury teams have shifted from reactive shock management to a structural acceptance of volatility.
In what industry insiders are calling an “omnicrisis,” the report reveals a corporate world that has embedded uncertainty into the very fabric of its financial decision-making.
Navigating a Relentless Macro Landscape
The current macroeconomic environment is defined by what treasurers describe as a “relentless” pace of change, where major geopolitical and economic events now occur every few months rather than every few years. At the forefront of these concerns is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has thrown global markets into turmoil and put immense pressure on energy resources and prices.
Beyond energy, several key factors are weighing on the strategic outlook for 2026:
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Geopolitical Friction: Uncertainty surrounding US tariffs has intensified following the US Supreme Court decision in Learning Resources, Inc v Trump, affecting the general trade outlook.
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The “Higher-for-Longer” Reality: In the UK, markets are now pricing in at least two Sterling base rate increases for 2026, a sharp reversal from earlier expectations of rate cuts.
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Policy Pressures: Within the UK, there is a growing sentiment that government policies aimed at growth are not yet delivering the hoped-for impact, contributing to a “muted” appetite for investment.
The State of Debt Funding and the Need for Change
The current state of debt funding is characterised by an even split between treasurers sticking to familiar paths and those forced to innovate. Bank debt remains the anchor, though its share has eased back to 44% in 2026. Meanwhile, debt capital markets issuance has seen a significant decline, dropping from 40% in 2024 to 26% in 2026.
This traditional reliance is under pressure and requires a strategic shift for several reasons:
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The Need for Liquidity Pools: Treasurers are increasingly layering in additional tools, such as private placements (up to 19%) and trade finance (7%), to improve flexibility and access to liquidity.
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Escaping “Boxing In”: Diversification is becoming a priority for 45% of respondents to ensure they do not “get boxed into a corner” when certain markets close or credit quality deteriorates.
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The Maturity Cliff: As cheaper, Covid-era debt matures into a significantly higher interest rate environment, treasurers must reassess their mix of bank, capital, and private sources to manage the increased cost of debt.
The New “Business as Usual”
The data paints a striking picture of adaptation. A significant 72% of respondents now anticipate operating under “business as usual but with continued disruption,” a dramatic leap from 41% just one year ago. Furthermore, half of the treasurers surveyed expect no or minor impact on their debt strategies despite the current climate, suggesting that prudent management and longer lead times for refinancings are providing a necessary buffer.
Deleveraging: Resilience Over Growth
The most telling finding is the clear pivot away from growth-oriented spending. The report highlights a “low-growth environment” where corporates are prioritising balance-sheet resilience over aggressive expansion.
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Acquisitions: Only 25% of respondents expect to increase M&A spending in 2026, down from 38% in 2025.
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CAPEX: Anticipated increases in capital expenditure have fallen from 51% to 35% over the same period.
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Debt Repayment: Conversely, 38% of treasurers are prioritising debt repayment as higher interest rates prompt firms to use free cash flow to reduce leverage.
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Shareholder Returns: There is a notable rise in plans for dividends (34%) and share buybacks (27%), with many firms taking advantage of suppressed share prices to return value to investors in the absence of reliable growth opportunities.
Looking Ahead
“Treasury teams have adapted to sustained volatility by embedding uncertainty into core decision-making,” says Kristen Roberts, Managing Partner at HSF Kramer. The 2026 report suggests that while treasurers are not necessarily anticipating a systemic credit shock, they are positioning their balance sheets to absorb whatever the “omnicrisis” throws at them next.
Access the full Corporate Debt and Treasury 2026 report via Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer here.